Study Names Cities Most—and Least—Likely to Recover From Commercial Real Estate Bust

A study using combined office and retail vacancy data from real estate research firm Reis Inc. looked at 79 cities across the country to determine those most and least likely to recover from what some anticipate to be a commercial real estate collapse, driven by declining rents and billions of dollars in commercial mortgages coming due soon. Because Birmingham, Ala., has a healthy blend of insurance, medicine, publishing, biotechnology, and higher education companies and institutions, it is ranked number one out of 10 cities considered to be primed for a commercial real estate recovery when the economy improves.

Other cities poised for recovery include: Tulsa, Okla.; Pittsburgh, Pa.; Long Island, N.Y.; Washington, D.C.; Philadelphia, Pa.; Louisville, Ky.; Portland, Ore.; Raleigh/Durham, N.C.; and Fairfield County, Conn.

Cities least likely to recover, according to the study, are Las Vegas; Baltimore; Detroit; San Bernadino/Riverside, Calif.; Hartford, Conn.; Dayton, Ohio; New York; Charleston, S.C.; Tacoma, Wash.; and New Haven, Conn.